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Was the FA right to not light up Wembley with Israel colours?

The Football Association has been condemned after announcing that Wembley Stadium will not be lit up in blue and white in support of Israel due to the country’s ongoing conflict with Palestine.

In a statement, they also announced that they will ‘remember the victims of the devastating events in Israel and Palestine’ with a one-minute silence before England’s Euro 2024 qualifier match against Italy, and plans to promote a Red Cross emergency appeal to those affected by the war.

The Board of Deputies of British Jews, the largest Jewish communal organisation in the UK, blasted the FA, calling their decision ‘weak and spineless’. They questioned why the FA showed solidarity with France following the Bataclan massacre in 2015 by lighting up the Wembley arch in French colours, but refused to do the same for Israel.

Rabbi Alex Goldberg, chair of the FA’s Faith in Football Network, has expressed his ‘profound disappointment’ with the FA, and plans to quit the network.

“For me, it’s imperative that our responses and actions, especially in international platforms like those at Wembley Stadium, are unequivocal in their support for the victims of such atrocities”, he said.

The FA’s decision has also been heavily criticised by Downing Street, with Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer saying she’d been left “extremely disappointed”.

“Words and actions matter. The government is clear: we stand with Israel,” she said.

Pandora’s box has been opened

It was not a matter of if the FA would be caught in a moral quandary, it was when. Once again, we have an example of what happens when organisations decide to assert themselves as one of the moral arbiters of society. In the FA’s defence, it isn’t the first organisation to be caught between a rock and a hard place in regards to their moral stance on an issue, and neither will it be the last.

Many organisations have been actively political in the past decade. As politics becomes increasingly hostile, many consumers of certain products, food and entertainment are demanding more from the companies they support. It no longer seems enough for organisations to keep a neutral standpoint on issues.

A recent example of this is ice cream brand Ben and Jerry’s open support for the Black Lives Matter campaign, going so far as calling on ‘white America [to] collectively acknowledge its privilege’. It’s become indicative of society’s political trajectory, where politics and business have become intertwined and have a sort of symbiotic relationship.

The issue that comes with this sort of corporate activism is deciding what stance to take on certain issues, which will almost always isolate groups of people on the unchosen side. Due to the uniquely vitriolic and passionate political tensions relating to the ongoing Israel/Palestine feud, the FA could be shown a certain amount of sympathy in regards to its neutral stance on the issue, but to British Jews, this isn’t enough. In some cases, to stay silent or neutral on an issue IS taking a side.

The Wembley arch was lit up in yellow and blue, in solidarity with Ukraine at the beginning of Russia’s invasion of the country, in rainbow colours to show solidarity with the LGBT community during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar and in red after terrorist attacks in Turkey outside Besiktas’ stadium in 2016.

None of these examples were ‘neutral’. The FA was clear and firm in its stance on these issues. Why, then, should it not take a similar stance on Israel?

British Jews will be of the opinion that English football was too slow to react to the attacks by the terrorist group Hamas, in which at least 1,300 Israelis have died in what is the worst act of killing of Jews since the Holocaust.

The speed at which the FA reacted to the aforementioned issues should also be taken into consideration. The Wembley arch was lit up in yellow and blue, red and rainbow colours within hours of their respective situations unfolding.

In this case, not only did they spend too much time arguing about how to handle the situation, they didn’t actually take a stance at all. To many, that’s simply not good enough. It’s an indication that some causes are perceived by the FA to be more important than others.

The FA and Wembley were lightning-quick to react to other causes and tragedies. Why the delay for this one?

The FA seems to have been hoisted by its own petard. This is a direct consequence of virtue signalling – it runs the risk of backfiring and isolating groups of people.

Pandora’s box is well and truly opened.

What happens now?

England players are planning to wear black armbands in solidarity with the victims on both sides of the war.

The FA has strictly banned any and all international flags that are not associated with the countries playing inside Wembley Stadium.

Following a terrorist attack in Belgium – where two people were shot dead in Brussels, causing Belgium’s match against Sweden to be abandoned, and which police say could be related to the ongoing war – police in and around Wembley during England’s match against Italy are on high alert and will have a significant presence throughout the evening.

What is Hamas? A simple guide to the armed Palestinian terrorist group

The Palestinian militant group has struggled to govern Gaza and remains committed to violently resisting Israel. Its surprise attack against Israel in 2023 threatens a wider conflagration in the Middle East.

In Summary

  • A spin-off of the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in the late 1980s, the Islamist militant group Hamas took over the Gaza Strip after defeating its rival political party, Fatah, in elections in 2006.
  • The United States and European Union have designated Hamas a terrorist organization because of its armed resistance against Israel, which has included suicide bombings and rocket attacks.
  • Israel has declared war on Hamas following its surprise assault on southern Israel in 2023, the deadliest attack on the country in decades.

Hamas is an Islamist militant movement and one of the Palestinian territories’ two major political parties. It governs more than two million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, but the group is best known for its armed resistance to Israel. In October 2023, Hamas launched a massive surprise attack on southern Israel, killing hundreds of civilians and soldiers and taking dozens more as hostages. Israel has declared war on the group in response and indicated its military is planning for a long campaign to defeat it. 

Dozens of countries have designated Hamas a terrorist organization, though some apply this label only to its military wing. Iran provides it with material and financial support, and Turkey reportedly harbors some of its top leaders. Its rival party, Fatah, which dominates the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and rules in the West Bank, has renounced violence. The split in Palestinian leadership and Hamas’s unwavering hostility toward Israel have diminished prospects for stability in Gaza.

When was Hamas formed and what is its aim?

The Hamas movement was founded in Gaza in 1987 by an imam, Sheikh Ahmed Yasin, and his aide Abdul Aziz al-Rantissi shortly after the start of the first Intifada, an uprising against Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories.

The movement started as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and created a military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, to pursue an armed struggle against Israel with the aim of liberating historic Palestine.

It also offered social welfare programmes to Palestinian victims of the Israeli occupation.

Soldiers walk in front of a police station that was damaged during battles to dislodge Hamas terrorists who were stationed inside, in the southern city of Sderot, on October 8, 2023. (JACK GUEZ/AFP)

Position on the peace process

From its foundation, Hamas rejected negotiations that would cede any land. The group denounced the 1993 peace agreement between Israel and the PLO and, along with the Islamic Jihad group, subsequently intensified its terror campaign using suicide bombers. The PLO and Israel responded with harsh security and punitive measures, although PLO chairman Yasser Arafat, seeking to include Hamas in the political process, appointed Hamas members to leadership positions in the Palestinian Authority (PA). The collapse of peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians in September 2000 led to an increase in violence that came to be known as the Aqṣā intifada. That conflict was marked by a degree of violence unseen in the first intifada, and Hamas activists further escalated their attacks on Israelis and engaged in a number of suicide bombings in Israel itself.

In the years after the Aqṣā intifada, Hamas began to moderate its views toward the peace process. After more than a decade of rejecting the foundational principles of the PA, Hamas ran in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections and subsequently participated in the PA, with indications that it would accept agreements between Israel and the PA. Since then, senior Hamas leaders have repeatedly stated their willingness to support a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders. This willingness was enshrined in the 2017 Document of General Principles and Policies.

What does Hamas believe

Since assuming power in the Gaza Strip two years after the Israeli disengagement in 2005, it has fought several wars of varying intensity against Israel. Unlike Fatah, Hamas asserts that Israel’s existence is inherently illegitimate and likewise rejects the two-state solution with regard to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. It advocates the creation of an Islamic state over the combined territory of Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip (i.e., from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea). Under the ideological principles of Islamism, it promotes Palestinian nationalism in an Islamic context; it has pursued a policy of jihad (armed struggle) against Israel. Hamas has pushed through changes that gave greater influence to Islamic law in the Gaza Strip. It has a social service wing, Dawah, and a military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.

People take part in a ‘Stand with Palestine’ demonstration, close to the Israeli embassy, in West London, on October 9, 2023. (Daniel LEAL/AFP)

In recent years, Hamas has increasingly gained popularity and support in Palestinian society. A poll conducted in 2021 by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey found that 53% of Palestinians believed that Hamas was “most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people” while only 14% preferred Fatah. Polls conducted in 2023 found that support of Hamas among Palestinians was around 27-31%.

How is Hamas’s attack on Israel in 2023 different?

Hamas’s assault on southern Israel this year, which the group’s leaders have called “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm,” was extraordinary in its strategy, scale, and secrecy, analysts say. It began early in the morning on October 7, the Jewish Sabbath and an important Jewish holiday, with Hamas launching several thousand rockets into southern and central Israel, hitting cities as far north as Tel Aviv. Hamas militants also breached the heavily fortified Gaza border and infiltrated many southern Israeli towns and villages, killing hundreds of Israeli troops and civilians, and wounding and kidnapping scores more. 

Hamas’s military leader, Mohammed Deif, said the group undertook its assault because of Israel’s long-running blockade of Gaza, its occupation of Palestinian lands, and its alleged crimes against Muslims, including the desecration of Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. 

Israeli soldiers cordon off an area after a shooting in the city of Hebron in the occupied West Bank [Hazem Bader/AFP]

It is the deadliest attack on Israeli soil in decades and has inflicted a deep psychological trauma on the Israeli people, with some analysts drawing comparisons to the surprise Pearl Harbor and September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. Israeli and U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly had no indications that Hamas was planning an assault of this nature. “It is completely unprecedented that a terrorist organization would have the capacity or the wherewithal to mount coordinated, simultaneous assaults from the air, sea, and land,” writes CFR Senior Fellow Bruce Hoffman.

Israel has declared war on Hamas and countered with intensifying air strikes on targets in Gaza and ground operations to push the group’s militants out of the country. The government has ordered the evacuation of all civilians from Israeli communities bordering Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a “long and difficult war” against Hamas, and Israel’s military response is expected to be extraordinary, if not unprecedented. 

Some observers are questioning if Israel will attempt a full-scale invasion and reoccupation of the Palestinian territory, a campaign that could incur heavy casualties on both sides. “Israel had mounted numerous military operations against Hamas since its takeover in 2007, two years after Israel pulled out of Gaza. But these were mostly from the air. And even when Israeli troops were deployed, they never stayed for long,” writes CFR Senior Fellow Max Boot for the Washington Post. 

An Israeli invasion of Gaza could also provoke a significant attack against Israel by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon, risking a wider conflagration in the region, analysts say. “Iran is, of course, a patron of Hezbollah [as well as Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups] and there is an ever-present danger of a two-front conflict, which would devastate parts of Israel and much of Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based. There is a risk of escalation,” says CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook.

Israel declares war: What is going on?

Israel has declared a state of war following the biggest attack on the country in decades. More than 1500 people have died. Below, we provide a summary of the latest developments.

More than 1500 people have died including at least one confirmed British citizen, as Israel declared a state of war in the country following an attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.

Hamas has been in power in Gaza since 2007 having won local elections despite being designated a terrorist group by the likes of Israel, the United States (US), the European Union (EU), and the UK. The group says it is committed to establishing a Palestinian state within its own borders, and that attacks come in retaliation to atrocities that Palestinians have faced over decades.

On the morning of October 7th, Hamas launched rockets and sent fighters into Israel in a surprise attack killing over 800 Israelis, including the massacre of 260 attendees of the Nova music festival in Southern Israel. The group are said to have taken more than 100 hostages.

Palestinians react as an Israeli military vehicle burns after it was hit by Palestinian attacks, Oct. 7, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Fayq Abu Mostafa.

In response, Israel launched a series of air strikes on Gaza killing more than 700 Palestinians. The Israeli military has since laid siege to Gaza, a densely populated strip of land home to 2.3 million people, blocking access to all electricity, fuel, food, and water.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant vowed, “we are fighting human animals and we will act accordingly”.

Palestinians remove a dead body from the rubble of a building after an Israeli air raid in Jabalia refugee camp, Oct 9, 2023. Al Jazeera/Ramez Mahmoud/AP Photo

Hamas has committed to execute Israeli hostages if Palestinians are not warned of impending Israeli airstrikes.

Rocketfire has also been exchanged along Israel’s Lebanese border with the militant group Hezbollah. The two incidents aren’t said to be linked but some experts argue Hamas and Hezbollah may yet co-ordinate attacks on Israel if it continues plans to launch a first ground offensive into Gaza in over a decade after it called up 300,000 army reservists to fight.

Word leaders have condemned the attacks

Leaders from around the world have condemned the attacks. A joint statement released by leaders of the UK, US, France, Italy and Germany states they were united in support of Israel and its right to defend itself.

The US has gone further in its support by sending warships and military aircraft to the region, in addition to weapons ammunition. Although White House National Security Council spokesman, John Kirby, said the government has no plans to send US troops into Israel.

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salmon said the Kingdom would continue to stand by the Palestinians and pledged its support to restore calm and stability.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on both sides to demonstrate restraint and bring an end to violence to protect citizens.

China’s official response said it condemned the attacks and called for an end to hostilities and any moves which seek to escalate the conflict and destabilize the region further.

The UN is engaging with key regional actors but internal disagreements stall the release of a joint statement

The United Nations (UN) chief of the Middle East Peace Process, Tom Wennesland, has said its officials are engaging with key regional actors including the US, EU, Qatar, Egypt, and Lebanon to coordinate a response that will “avoid further loss of civilian life and deliver much needed humanitarian aid to the (Gaza) Strip.”

However, following a briefing from Wennesland, the UN Security Council (the primary body charged with the maintenance of international peace and security) failed to reach the agreement required for it to release a joint statement on the matter amid divisions between two camps led by Russia and the US. The Russian-led group of members is said to favour a broader statement condemning more than just the Hamas group, which the US-led group favours.

UN special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Francesca Albanese, has cautioned the international community it is necessary to “stand both with the Palestinians and the Israelis without resorting to (…) selective outrage or worse, calls for violence.”

Are Party Conferences relevant to voters?

Whether you’re into politics or not, many of the news headlines during the month of October are about party conferences. This year that includes scrapping A-Levels and the HS2 rail project detailed in Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s speech on October 4. As an outsider, it feels overwhelming and staged. So, who are the party conferences for?

I am writing this in the middle of party conference season and the British media is reporting and reacting to every soundbite at this year’s party conferences. The Tory Party has just wrapped up while the Labour Party’s is yet to come. Despite our two-party system, we cannot forget that the Green Party conference happened in the same week as the Conservatives and the Lib Dems in September. 

Everything is scrutinised by journalists, from the location to the speeches, and we’re made to believe that these annual party conferences are a big deal. Yet when I started to look a bit closer, they seemed less and less relevant to the average person. 

Before I go on, I must admit, I have never been to a party conference. Therefore, writing this column initially seemed a little hypocritical. However, I quickly realised that party membership hovers around 1-2%, therefore I am in the majority, not the minority. Researching further made me realise that people like me don’t join parties. 18–34-year-olds make up less than 20% of membership. To top it off, members of all parties are typically in their 50’s, male, middle-class, and overwhelming white (Party Members Project). 

Looking past the initial hurdle of membership, the conferences are packed with speeches, panels, discussions, and parties. That’s right, free tabs, drinks events and ‘discos’ are part of conference schedules that members can look forward to. Beyond political spectacle, sessions are an opportunity for members to come together in person from across the country rather than remaining localised or isolated on virtual calls. 

Britain’s Labour Party leader Keir Starmer speaks during the tribute to Britain’s Queen Elizabeth at Britain’s Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool, Britain, September 25, 2022. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls

Members gain new status while they’re at the conference, often described as the ‘faithful’ or party ‘loyalists’ in the media. You would think that the conference would be all about them; an opportunity to discuss amongst themselves of what’s working (or not) in their party. Instead, party conferences seem primarily focused on creating media coverage fanfare. Especially with an election on the horizon, party conferences are yet another opportunity to speak to voters. But are the rest of us listening?

The jury is still out on whether party conferences really sway the average voter or not. Dramatic announcements can sway voters initially but arguably voters have already made up their minds. Parties will always have new announcements and policies that create headlines and they’re always pumped out on social media anyway. So why bother?

While it feels out of touch for the average voter, I don’t believe that party conferences are completely useless – despite my incendiary title. What should be carefully considered is the extent of news coverage to the point of overload. In an ever-saturated media landscape, the political party conference seems out of step with modern-day Britons. Conferences could bring greater value to the average person if they embrace their true intention of reaching voters. I see two choices, turning in and leaving the media parade behind or looking out and offering genuinely innovative ways to engage the wider public. 

Is the UK really a competitor to China?

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“Britain is not a rival, it is not a competitor, it is not an enemy, it is not an adversary.” You would be forgiven for concluding from Chinese government spokesperson Vitor Gao’s remarks that China views the UK as irrelevant. But just how comparable are the two countries?

The Sino-UK relationship is currently under the media spotlight thanks to allegations of a Chinese government spy in UK parliament. This led political commentator Andrew Marr to invite Chinese government spokesperson Vitor Gao onto LBC to discuss the Chinese view of the Sino-UK relationship. When pressed on China’s opinion of the UK viewing it as a competitor, Gao’s response was a damning assessment of UK competition.

“What do China and Britain compete with? China is the largest manufacturer of automobiles, competing with Britain? No. China is the largest exporter of EV [electrical vehicle] cars…. Is Britain a competitor? No. China will be the biggest and most important producer and R&D in terms of semi-conductor in no time. Does that mean China competes with Britain? No. China will be the leading nation in AI revolution. Is Britain a competitor? No.”

Chinese media spokesperson, Vitor Gao speaks to LBC’s Andrew Marr, 2023

Chinese leader Xi Jinping with the late Queen Elizabeth II during a period of warmer Sino-UK relations. Getty Images, 2015.

Gao concluded by suggesting the UK government avoid overestimating its global impact. Below, we will explore just how comparable the UK and China truly are, and whether Gao’s remarks downplayed the importance of a global Britain or were a reality check for a declining, once great power in the world.

The sheer scale of China dwarfs the UK

First, to get a sense of the vast difference in scale of China and the UK, let us take a look at the geography.

According to the latest ONS data, the UK population stands at just over 67 million people. When compared to China’s 1.4 billion population, the UK population is less than 5% that of China. China’s population alone accounts for 18% of the world’s population. The UK accounts for just 0.9%.

China is the fourth largest country in the world with a land mass of 9.6 million km². China’s smallest province, Hainan, is three times larger than the largest county in the UK, Yorkshire.

In terms of infrastructure, particularly poignant following the government’s latest update that its attempt at high-speed rail will no longer connect its second and third largest cities, China has built a complete high-speed rail network, longer than the rest of the world’s combined, from scratch, in just 20 years.

The absolute scale of China dwarfs a tiny island nation like the UK. This is important to keep in mind when considering economic comparisons.

The Chinese economy is exceedingly big compared to the UK economy, but the UK remains richer

China is the largest economy in the world. The UK is the eleventh largest economy in the world. The World Bank estimates UK GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) hovers around $3 trillion. This figure is only a tenth that of China’s whopping $30 trillion GDP. This is unsurprising, given the vast differences in both population and size of the two countries outlined above.

Source: The Common Sense Network analysis of GDP (PPP) data from the World Bank, 2023.

Only when understood in terms of GDP per head of the population (per capita) can the two countries be compared. Using this figure, the UK’s GDP per capita (PPP) figure of $54,603 more than doubles that of China’s GDP per capita figure of $21,487. The UK is therefore richer than China on a person-to-person basis.

Source: The Common Sense Network analysis of GDP per capita (PPP) data from the World Bank, 2023.

Having sought to understand the big picture of a UK-China comparison, let us now delve deeper into Gao’s comments about UK-China competition.

UK-China trade has little overlap

Gao was right to conclude the UK and China are not competitors when it comes to the technologies of tomorrow.

A Chinese employee inspects semi-conductor technologies at the Smart Pioneer Electronics Co. factory in Suzhou, China. Getty Images, 2022.

The two countries have little trade overlap thanks to differing economic specializations. The UK is the second largest exporter of services in the world whereas China is a manufacturing-driven economy.

UK service specialization means market leadership in sectors such as life sciences, education, finance, and insurance. China specializes more in electrical goods, textiles and machinery.

But what for the industries outlined by Gao in his critique of UK competition: electric vehicles (EV), semi-conductors, and artificial intelligence (AI)?

These industries represent the key technologies of the future. Which of the UK and China is innovating more in these industries? China.

China leads the UK in future technologies

To understand EV, we can look at EV sales as a proportion of total vehicle sales and the accompanying EV charging infrastructure which will enable the transition.

China’s EV sales penetration rate (the percentage of total vehicle sales) currently stands at 33% for the year 2022. Whereas the UK EV sales penetration rate hovers around 23%. Taken alone, these figures suggest the two countries aren’t too far apart on EV progress.

However, when understood together with EV infrastructure, the UK lags far behind China. The UK has an EV to charging point ratio of 17:1. That is 17 vehicles to every 1 charging point. That compares to China’s much lower rate of 2.5:1.

China powers the electronics of the modern world, the UK doesn’t

Now, let us look at semi-conductors. Semi-conductors come in many forms but at the most basic level are best understood as the devices that allow electrical currents to be manipulated and thereby power many of the electronic devices we use today.

You will have likely read the recent media storm surrounding Huawei’s new Mate 60 Pro. The reason for the intense media coverage is the device’s inclusion of advanced semi-conductors industry leaders thought China was not yet capable of developing.

The UK is not a competitor in this regard, with industry experts admitting the UK isn’t going to be developing ‘the chips powering the latest smartphones’ instead fulfilling less advanced, more specialized market demands.

AI leadership is a global endeavour

Finally, on AI, China’s recent draft AI regulations demonstrate its leadership in the sector and in future technologies more broadly.

Whilst the UK has its own upcoming global AI summit demonstrating some degree of regulatory leadership, China is invited. This suggests the government agrees China is not a competitor in AI but a vital partner. Indeed, a McKinsey report back in 2019 concluded that while the UK is an industry leader within Europe, it doesn’t come close to China.

The UK isn’t a competitor to China, nor is it a rival. The UK must rethink its approach to China going forward if it wishes to be taken seriously on the international stage. An active foreign policy focused on co-operation not conflict is key if the UK is to inject its stagnating economy with some much needed vitality.

Why do our leaders keep lying? The real cost of widespread deception

Cleo Anderson considers the moral implications of our leader’s lying and potential ways of combatting the effects of this type of deception.

From Donald Trump’s recent court ruling on business fraud or Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s questionable claims in his recent net-zero speech, our political leaders are regularly caught in lies. Despite the legal frameworks we have in democracy, it does not deter our leaders. While deception may be nothing new to politics, I wanted to consider if there was something we could do about the widespread culture of lying.

Many of us growing up will have been told of the boy who cried wolf. A simple story that warns us if we make false claims that when it is time to tell the truth, nobody will believe us. Rather than being eaten by a wolf, this tale teaches us that lying is not only dangerous but will never play in our favour. 

Yet it seems lying, especially if you’re in political office is now standard. I wouldn’t go so far as to say it is rewarded, but false claims do not lead to less trust or even less platforming. In some cases, we see political groups back certain candidates with even more vigour. And it has led me to ask, why?

Why are we allowing those in positions of power to not tell the truth? Perhaps we are in the era of ‘fake news’, ‘alternative facts’ and ‘post-truth’. There is no middle ground or scientific fact that we can agree on; instead, our opinions and emotions lead the debate in whichever direction suits – be that left or right, blue or red. If there is no agreement among us, then of course lying can take root. 

Former president Donald Trump speaks at his Mar-a-Lago estate on April 4, 2023, in Palm Beach, Florida, after being arraigned earlier in the day in New York City. EVAN VUCCI / AP

So, I kept thinking. And once again my childhood reminded me of the wooden toy that dreamed of being a boy. Pinocchio simply had to tell a lie and his nose would grow. All who were present could see his nose lengthening with each falsity. (Un)Fortunately, our politicians (or anyone in the public eye) will never see their lies cause such a physical distortion. But how do we even know when someone is lying?  A post on social media (X or otherwise) can be posted in a split second and gain popularity in the seconds and minutes after. What stops anyone from posting an outright lie? I guess, nothing.

Traditional media and independent groups have tried to ‘fight back’, with fact-checking teams, whether it’s BBC’s Verify, or FullFact.org, checking viral videos and correcting politicians’ tweets. Yet even with the help of AI, these services still only provide a counterargument (a clean-up team so to speak) when the damage may already be done. 

What can we do? Some people believe it is our own responsibility to question our sources. Learning to be sceptical of everything we read and hear, especially of those who are in the pursuit of gaining (more) power. We must remember that without the fear of Pinocchio’s nose growth, lying may seem the easiest and most rewarding path.

Is there any hope? Perhaps it is most important not to be disheartened. It’s clear looking throughout history, lying, falsehoods, and disinformation are nothing new. Politicians, public figures, and companies have been lying to us for years and will probably continue to do so. I think being aware that it is possible, asking why someone wants you to believe something and finally being willing to debate ideas is the best place to start. Beyond the quick-witted takedowns we enjoy online, we need to foster an open and honest dialogue that involves empathy, listening and (an attempt at) common sense. 

Addressing misconceptions about Islam with Britain’s youngest Imam

Imam Sabah Ahmedi has emerged as a voice of hope and change using his platform to actively address misconceptions about the Muslim faith.

He not only serves as a religious leader but as a bridge between different communities diligently working to promote unity as part of his daily commitments in the press office.

In this exclusive interview, we delve into his journey, his mission to reshape perceptions and the intersection of faith and the modern workplace.

Baitul Futuh Mosque Source: Common Sense

Why did you become an imam and what’s your journey?

Sabah Ahmadi’s path to becoming an Imam is marked by dedication and a sense of calling. Born in Manchester, he attended an all-boys school, where he served as deputy head boy. However, it was the prayers of his parents that played a significant role in influencing his decision to devote his life to the service of religion. At just 17, he woke up and chose to undergo a seven-year journey of studying to become an Imam.

How do you seek to change the narrative/misconceptions about the Muslim faith?

Sabah is keen to address certain misconceptions about Islam and believes the public’s perception of Islam is often fuelled by media portrayals of the faith and a lack of personal encounters with actual Muslims. As a faith leader, he feels a profound responsibility to dispel these misunderstandings. Through his social media and other platforms, he aims to engage his generation and anyone interested in learning about Islam. He also actively challenges misconceptions about young Asian men and addresses the misconception that Islam promotes misogyny, emphasising Islam’s historical role in establishing women’s rights.

Why do you think faith is increasingly becoming a talking point in the working world?

Faith is gaining prominence in the corporate world, Sabah attributes this shift to the need for increased efforts for inclusivity and diversity. Companies are recognising the value of allowing employees to bring their whole selves to work actually improves performance and fosters a sense of belonging.

If it were the case that employers were discouraging workers from openly displaying their faith, negative consequences would be inevitable. Hence, there is significance in creating safe spaces for individuals to comfortably express their beliefs.

What are the common denominators that align every single one of us no matter our faith?

Sabah is a firm believer that there is a plethora of principles and beliefs that serve as common denominators between people of different faiths. However, he emphasises the importance of praying for one another and genuinely wishing good for one another as we transcend religious boundaries. He hopes young faith leaders will use their voices to contribute positively to society and foster understanding among diverse communities through interfaith dialogue. 

Bishop Hendricks visits one of the biggest mosques in the UK (Source: The Catholic Church)

What change would you like to see within the forthcoming years?

Sabah’s vision for the future is one of hope and unity. He envisions a world where people learn about Islam, dispel misconceptions and pray for each other. He also hopes this spirit of goodwill extends to all faiths and young faith leaders take up the mantle of positive change within society. 

Imam Sabah Ahmedi leaves us with a powerful message: “My life is not my life anymore; my service is my life”

This message serves as a reminder that young faith leaders live a life poured out to service and are dedicated to the flourishing of their religion. Sabah continues to live a life of service in addressing misconceptions about the Muslim faith.

Was there actually a Chinese government Spy in UK Parliament!?

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his foreign secretary James Cleverley accused of negligence following a Sunday Times exclusive alleging the arrest of a Chinese government spy working in parliament had been known since March.

Two men have been arrested alleged of spying for the Chinese government. One of the men, a British national said to be in his late twenties, worked as a parliamentary researcher and is believed to have had access to influential Conservative figures, including the security minister Tom Tugendhat and Foreign Affairs Committee chairwoman Alicia Kearns.

Both China and the accused deny the accusations, describing them as ‘groundless’.

Information surrounding the arrests is said to have been known since March despite the governments recent efforts to stabilize diplomatic relations with China, prompting accusations of negligence by the government.

News of the alleged spy has re-ignited criticism from traditional China hawks in the Conservative party, most notably former Prime Minister Liz Truss and former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, who have long charged the UK response to the China threat is insufficient.

Below, we explore what the fall-out of a spy in parliament might mean for the government and its recent efforts to reset Sino-UK relations.

Arrest of alleged spy complicates the PMs efforts to reset Sino-UK relations

The PM and his government had hoped to reset Sino-UK relations, which were at a historic low point, with disputes over Hong Kong, Huawei’s role in UK 5G networks, and criticism of Beijing’s treatment of its ethnic Uyghur population just a handful of diplomatic fall-outs in recent years. The foreign secretaries recent visit to Beijing had made him the first senior UK official to visit China in 5 years.

British Foreign Secretary James Cleverley meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in first UK-China meeting for 5 years. Reuters, 2023.

News of the alleged spy complicates efforts to stabilize relations, with the Times reporting Sunak faces a split in his Cabinet with compromised security minister Tom Tugendhat and home secretary Suella Braverman said to support a tougher stance on China.

Former PM and ex-Tory leader, Liz Truss and Sir Iain Duncan Smith, are leading figures in advocating a tougher stance on China. Duncan Smith summarized their wish for parliament to take a binary approach to China, ‘are they a threat or not?’ he asked the Commons.

Earlier this year, parliament’s intelligence and security committee report on China concluded a lack of action by successive UK governments to the threat of China constituted a ‘serious failure’ to protect UK national security.

Government’s failure to heed their warning may have prompted China sceptics to take action. Let us dissect why.

Timing is good politics

Publicizing the arrests of Chinese government spies at a time when efforts to repair Sino-UK relations are underway is unlikely to be a coincidence. It creates rifts in government and demands a degree of distancing in the UK-China relationship.

The timing of a press release in September surrounding arrests made in March is suspicious. News of the alleged spy in parliament broke as the PM attended this years G20 summit in Delhi.

The foreign secretary had alluded to the PMs desire to speak with Chinese officials directly at the G20 which prompted backlash from the aforementioned Tory MPs. Whether these MPs took unilateral action to prevent a reset of Sino-UK relations is speculation but nonetheless, the timing is interesting.

Or perhaps Downing Street took the decision to leak the information, calculating it could re-engage with China whilst demonstrating its ability to criticize the Chinese government to party sceptics.

Another possible angle is Downing Street sought to demonstrate to China UK ability to wield soft power and damage China’s international reputation.

Might the foreign secretary have heard something in his visit to Beijing that suggested it no longer respected the notion that the UK has leverage to lean on? If China’s media spokesman Victor Gao’s interview with Andrew Marr on LBC is anything to go by, this wouldn’t be surprising.

LBC’s Andrew Marr received a dressing down on behalf of Britain by China’s media spokesperson Victor Gao, 2023.

Ultimately, this is but speculation and it is unlikely we will ever know the truth. What we do know is that espionage is nothing new. Its publicization is a political choice. This choice needn’t come at the expense of efforts to stabilize the Sino-UK relationship, as we detail below.

The UK has a responsibility to engage with China

As the foreign secretary succinctly put it when outlining the UKs China strategy earlier this year, ‘shirking the responsibility to engage with China is a sign not of strength, but of weakness’ and one which ultimately hinders the national interest.

The success of China in infiltrating UK parliamentary democracy rightly warrants scrutiny of existing national security measures, yet it needn’t come at the expense of efforts to stabilize the bilateral relationship.

Rather than secede to Sinophobia which damages UK national interests in the long-run, the government should continue efforts to repair Sino-UK relations.

International relations is not a black or white subject. It isn’t a question of whether one likes nor agrees with individual leaders or political parties, it is a question of substance in how diplomatic relations facilitate safer and more prosperous societies around the world.

Contrary to popular belief, this is a view shared by the head of Britain’s secret service, Richard Moore, who argues it is ‘absolutely necessary to engage with China. For the simple reason that not a single international problem of any importance can be addressed if we do not’.

Is there a resurgence of West African coups?

Military coups in West Africa are on the rise as many countries experience deteriorating economic conditions and democratic backsliding prompting military intervention.

West Africa has experienced a tumultuous history of political instability characterised by military coups and political power struggles. 

Although commendable progress has been made in recent decades to adopt a democracy as a form of governance, concerns still linger about the potential resurgence of coups in West Africa.

A coup is an illegal attempt, often by the military to seize power from leaders in power who have been elected by the electorate. 

Historical military coups have often led to political instability, economic decline and the abuse of human rights. This is simultaneously unsurprising and ironic given the motive for military coups often stems from political instability and economic hardship within a country. Hence, whether military intervention is effective in addressing the initial problems the country may face.

A culture of military coups has been pre-existent within West Africa with 10 coup attempts in Burkina Faso, 17 attempts in Sudan and many other attempts see across countries such as Benin, Nigeria and Niger.

Source: Jonathan Powell, Uni of Central Florida and Clayton Thyne, Uni of Kentucky

Some of the latest coups

On the 26th July 2023, the military placed President Mohamed Bazoum on house arrest and seized power. 

The coup has legitimised their reasoning for seizing power stating President Mohamed Bazoum was a vessel representing French interests in Gabon. It’s fair to say the military was not explicitly defending the people but acted out of their interests as multiple military deals with France had previously been revoked. 

General Abdourahmane Tchiani has declared himself the coup leader and is confident of the success of the coup.

The military takeover in Gabon is the latest coup to occur following the coup in Niger over a month ago. On the 30th August 2023, a military coup occurred in Gabon. President Ali Bongo was ousted and is currently on house arrest, which has ended over 50 years of the Bongo family reign in Gabon.

The coup was motivated by a recent election confirming President Ali Bongo’s third term as president. However, the opposition alongside the military believed voting was rigged leading to the military seizing power moments after the election results were announced. 

Factors incentivising coups

Key challenges that constantly seem to incentivise coups stem from governance challenges, economic hardship and the erosion of democratic norms. 

Firstly, many countries in West Africa are experiencing democratic backsliding as a result of corruption and poor governance resulting in weakening institutions. Hence the need for military intervention. 

Similar to the point above, the erosion of democratic norms such as rigged voting and disrespect towards laws dismantle the foundation needed for democratic institutions to thrive. Simply, this foundation appears incredibly weak in some West African countries.

Finally, a country where poverty and high unemployment are prevalent is bound to experience a breakdown in the relationship between the government and the electorate. As the people may feel let down and unsupported by the government they may turn to the military as a source of help, which probes military intervention. 

Could a resurgence of coups occur?

Whilst the frequency of West African coups is a cause for concern about the future, we must note there is an overall trend of West African countries trying to establish democratic institutions as they seek political stability.

Effective measures have also been put in place such as diplomatic pressure, economic incentivises and sanctions to deter coups and promote peaceful political practices. 

As we acknowledge the possibility of coups resurging, vigilance is key to effectively spot emerging patterns. 

What the heck is BRICS?

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BRICS expansion comes as a counterweight to Western-dominated political and economic institutions, and reliance on the U.S. dollar. This constitutes a form of grievance-based politics.

BRICS – the name for the grouping of emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – will soon expand.

Following its 15th annual summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. A formal invitation was extended to 6 countries: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

BRICS provides a vehicle for countries out-of-favor with Washington, facing economic exclusion or sanction regimes, to co-operate thereby mitigating the effects of exclusionary measures.

BRICS countries now account for 75% of the world’s manganese, 50% of the globe’s graphite, 42% of the world’s oil production, 28% of the world’s nickel, and 10% of copper.

This poses a choice for Washington: re-engage or push nations further toward one-another, and further away from its sphere of influence.

Below, we delve-deeper the significance of BRICS and its expansion.

BRICS is not anti-US, it is anti-dependency

Many observers have labelled BRICS as a coalition of anti-U.S. countries, but this is an oversimplification.

BRICS expansion means the group now includes Russia, Iran, and China. The former are openly antagonistic to the U.S. in the face of economic sanctions. The latter, the U.S. perceives as a direct threat to its global leadership.

BRICS summit: Is a new bloc emerging to rival US leadership? BBC News, 2023

Whilst Russia and Iran may wish to steer the group in this direction, for most of BRICS, including China, leveraging a collective voice proceeds enhanced co-operation with the U.S. and its allies.

BRICS is not anti-US, it is anti-dependency. What unites members is contempt for western-led financial institutions, and reliance on the U.S. dollar.

Weaponization of the U.S. dollar has accelerated support for BRICS

Last year, the U.S. and its allies took the decision to use their economic might to punish Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, but the move has alarmed leaders around the world.

‘We call for reform of the International system,
and a greater role for emerging markets and developing countries, in leadership positions in its institutions’

XV BRICS Summit, Johannesburg II Declaration, 2023

Freezing nearly half ($300bn) of Russia’s foreign currency reserves and removing Russian banks from SWIFT, a financial service facilitating international payments, is a move akin to a nuclear bomb in the financial world, symbolic of the weaponization of currency.

Policy development of an alternative international payment system of localized currency to de-risk countries against U.S. weaponization of its dollar is underway. This process is often referred to as de-dollarization and occurs in tandem with other BRICS development initiatives such as the New Development Bank.

These initiatives aim to support the development of emerging economies and provide competition to established institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, which stand accused of cripplingly high interest rates which lock emerging economies into debt.

This narrative is convincing for many countries, but others view it as a convenient truth Chinese leadership uses to entice emerging economies to be pawns in its own grand strategy.

BRICS expansion aligns with Chinese foreign policy goals…and doesn’t align with the West’s

For cynics, the alignment of BRICS expansion with Chinese foreign policy is a convenient truth. But for the Chinese, and an increasing number of others, it is more symbolic of an inconvenient truth for the West – its eroding grip on natural resources and power.

With the exception of Argentina, the new BRICS members are MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa). Their admission is symbolic of the regions shift from the American sphere of influence to the Chinese – the strongest advocates for BRICS expansion.

U.S withdrawal from the Middle East left a power vacuum China has been keen to fill. China’s role in brokering the détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, whose conflict had destabilized several countries in the Middle East – including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Bahrain already warranted international significance but institutionalizing the relationship represents a major next step toward a more secure long-term relationship, and enhanced leadership prospects for China in the region.

Similarly, Egypt and Ethiopia bridge Africa and the Middle East, conflict concerning rights to the Nile River similarly plagued the relationship. Their admissions and prospects for a more stable relationship compliments Chinese geopolitical ambitions by connecting its foreign policy initiatives on both continents. Yet alignment with Chinese foreign policy shouldn’t detract from the facts on the ground.

The Facts on the Ground

China’s increasing presence in Africa provides economic options and leverage for African nations concerning resource extraction. Localized currency offers a degree of financial flexibility when it comes to debt servicing emerging economies, and a growing presence in the Middle East and South America diversifies control over critical minerals.

This amounts to considerable negotiating power for a group of countries united by a shared history of unfavorable relationships with the West.

Yet for all its potential, BRICS has achieved little for an organization that is 13 years old. Tangible outcomes remain to be seen, but it is clear the voice of emerging economies is growing louder. What they wish to do with it, only time will tell.

Is China’s economy on the verge of collapse?

China’s economy is set to experience many challenges if it does not actively combat its demographic issues as the working population ages.

China’s remarkable economic growth over the past few decades has been closely tied to its vast population. However, the country’s demographics are undergoing a significant transformation that is set to have profound implications for its economy.

As China’s population ages, the nation must navigate a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities to sustain its economic momentum and remain the world’s second-largest economy.

One of the most notable demographic shifts in China is its ageing population. It appears the country is now suffering the effects of the one-child policy implemented between 1979-2015 to mitigate rapid population growth. Hence the emergence of a rapidly ageing society.

The proportion of elderly citizens aged 65 and above is rising as the proportion of the working-age population starts to decline. Statista estimates the size of China’s population between 15 to 64 years (working age) is set to decrease by 117 million between now and 2040.

This foreshadows the magnitude of China’s demographic problems starting to surface. In decades to come, as people start to retire from the labour force there seem to be fewer qualified people to replace them. Could we possibly see the downfall of such an economic power?

Source: UnSplash

Implications for the economy

Firstly, the labour force faces potential shortages, which may be incredibly problematic as the workforce will constrain economic growth.

As the labour force shrinks the productive capacity of the economy shrinks as productivity slows down, meaning output is negatively impacted.

It would naturally follow as output falls economic growth also falls. Depending on the severity of China’s demographic issues in the future, this could lead to sustained periods of recession, which is two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

Secondly, the anticipation of a recession would add to existent deflationary pressure, which simply means the propensity of consumers and investors to spend falls, negatively impacting aggregate demand.

If the Chinese government fails to quickly address such possibilities, China’s economy may be on its way to collapse.

All hope is not lost

There is still hope for China. To counter the effects of an aging workforce China has heavily invested in automation, artificial intelligence and robotics.

If their investments pay off, these technologies may help to bridge the productivity gap caused by a shrinking workforce. However, the transition to a fully technology-driven economy requires a skilled workforce competent in operating these advanced systems.

Flexibility, foresight and effective policy implementation will be essential to ensure a prosperous future for the nation amidst this demographic shift, or they face the steepest economic decline in years.

Cashless Societies: Good or Bad for democracy?

Over the past few years, questions and concerns have been raised about the effects that modern technology is having on society, and how it affects civil liberties and freedoms.

Over the next five weeks, these effects will be explored at Common Sense.

Is the death of cash bad?

It’s undeniable that contactless and digital payments have revolutionised the way we interact with the world. With more and more businesses only accepting digital transactions for payment, it certainly does seem as if this is the future of commerce.

Online banking is quite a convenient tool. Being able to send money to a person wherever they are in the world in a matter of seconds is something past generations could only dream of. Digitally paying for items, combined with next day delivery service, has numbered the days of having to physically enter a shop.

Digital payments have created a culture of convenience amongst consumers. Convenience, being the key word here, begs the question: is there a catch to this?

In the last few years there have been several concerns raised regarding banking companies, and whether or not a cashless society is truly beneficial for citizens or if it could spell the end of absolute financial autonomy. Many are fearful that such centralised power could be open to abuse by banks, manifesting itself in the form of political discrimination or a self-appointed role of the ‘morality police’.

A recent example of this was the Farage/Coutts scandal, where it was revealed that the bank’s justification for removing the former UKIP Party leader’s accounts from their platform was in part due to his political beliefs that ‘[went against Coutts’] position as an inclusive organisation’.

In December 2020 Visa and MasterCard announced they’d be blocking purchases to adult site PornHub, following a report from the New York Times that alleged the website allowed videos without the consent of the person featured, including revenge pornography, onto the platform.

They subsequently removed approximately 10 million videos within 24 hours following the article’s release.

It was also alleged that the website ‘monetised child rape’ and that it did not have enough safeguards in place to distinguish between legal and illegal content.

The concern that many have from these cases – especially the former – is the existence of a powerful technocracy that can seemingly, for any reason, remove the ability for a person or business to receive or make payments.

It could be argued that the latter case was for moral and ethical reasons. The former case, however, is a demonstrable example of why people are concerned.

The aftermath of TNYT’s bombshell article resulted in Pornhub restricting downloads and removing millions of videos

“Libertarianism can only go so far”

I am a strong believer in free market enterprise and capitalism. I believe in the right to ownership of private property, and I am generally against the idea of state intervention into private business, whether financially or personally. The free market should mean exactly that – free.

The emergence of a technocracy however has, admittedly, tested my resolve. Libertarianism can only go so far.

There are two issues I have with technocracy. The first is the push to remove cash, which removes the competition of the method of payment itself. The second is the centralisation of economic power that comes with it.

My issue with the former is a straightforward one: the elimination of competition. Without cash, digital payments would be the only option that consumers would have, which in turn would embolden banks and finance companies to increase the price of their services. It would give them a monopoly on payment itself.

The latter is where it becomes more concerning. A cashless society would give banks unprecedented financial power over individuals and society itself, as the decisions of all financial purchases would be solely at their mercy.

As much as one may agree with some justifications for banning a user or company from their platforms (the Visa/MasterCard-Pornhub scenario springs to mind), the mere ability to be able to make those decisions worries many.

At best, these institutions would find themselves with the ability to essentially be the financial ‘morality police’, being able to decide who is able to make purchases, when, to whom, and on what. Any transaction they deem to be ‘against their values’ (which is becoming increasingly subjective) would be refused.

Public speaker and agriculturist Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones MBE speaks about holding those in power to account.

At worst, they would be used as a vital tool in the culture wars. Political lobbies – on both the left and the right – would seize the chance to fill the power vacuum. If either side managed to influence a person in a position of power and/or influence at the bank, it would represent a serious threat to both democracy and individual liberty.

Banks would be used as tools to disrupt (or halt altogether) transactions by political enemies. If you were deemed to be using language or expressing opinions that ‘didn’t align with the bank’s values’, you couldn’t function.

Legally, the bank couldn’t stop you from saying certain things, but they could ban you from using their platform.

Imagine, for example, that a Christian pastor preached against same sex marriage. If Stonewall, or another LGBT organisation, managed to influence senior officials, and convince them that preaching against same sex marriage violated its values, the bank would simply ‘debank’ the pastor.

This would, essentially, undermine free speech and expression, which is a legal right in the UK. It would mean that banks, not the law, could decide what can and can’t be said, practically.

In the modern world it’s impossible to function without a bank account. It’s one thing to believe in free markets and libertarianism, but what happens when the company becomes the market itself?

Are civil liberties for sale?

A free market should be exactly that – free. Technocracy is a threat to this. If private companies can decide what an individual spends their money on, then by definition it is not a ‘free’ market.

Is the ULEZ expansion unfair to low-income families?

As of August 29th 2023, the much anticipated Ultra Low Emission Zone expansion will come into full effect in an effort to reduce emissions and pursue cleaner air. 

The ULEZ initially introduced in Central London in 2019 is expanding to cover a broader area. New areas ULEZ will expand to include: Bromley, Chingford, Heathrow and other locations. 

Following the success of ULEZ in central London, 97% of vehicles meet cleaner standards, NOx emissions have fallen by 26% within 4 years and PM2.5 emissions decreased by 19%. Such progress prompted the ambitious expansion plan that has now commenced. 

Air pollution has been a pressing concern in London for years, with its negative impact on public health and the environment becoming increasingly evident. ULEZ was introduced by levying charges on vehicles that did not meet strict emission standards when driving in a specific zone. 

Source: Transport for London

The expansion is expected to lead to significant reductions in nitrogen oxide (NOx) and particulate matter emissions, which are major contributors to respiratory issues and air pollution-related health problems. Hence the initiative aims to increase the use of cleaner vehicles such as electric or hybrid cars. 

If vehicles do not meet ULEZ emission standards, owners could face a daily £12.50 fee. You can check if your vehicle meets ULEZ emission standards here. 

Scrappage scheme

For owners of vehicles that fall short of these standards, help is available through the scrappage scheme TfL has introduced. London residents are eligible for the Mayor of London’s £160 million scrappage scheme, allowing residents to receive payments to scrap their vehicle or choose TfL transport passes that hold a similar monetary value to the payout. 

There are also alternative offers available whether you apply for the scrappage scheme or not. Existing ULEZ exemptions have been gracefully extended for vehicles that will be ready after the ULEZ expansion. 

Unfair to low-income families

While the ULEZ is a commendable step forward, some things must be addressed. A daily charge of £12.50 for non-compliant vehicles may disproportionately affect low-income households or small businesses. Many are already suffering the impacts of the cost-of-living crisis and will be pushed into a place of deeper financial struggle. 

For some, their non-compliant vehicles is a means of providing for their families as they travel to work. Now there is an additional cost that they must now consider as they commute to work.

Although it’s anticipated that London and places beyond will experience improved air quality and health benefits. It is questionable whether the ULEZ expansion could have taken place at a later time that would favour people during the present financial struggle many are currently going through. 

Big Win For Biden Administration In ROK-Japan Rapprochement

From alliance protection to alliance projection. The rapprochement between two long-time adversaries with deeply held historical grievances marks the beginning of a new security chapter in Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Last week, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio met together with U.S. President Joe Biden, in a historic summit which outlined commitments of long-time foes South Korea and Japan to expand cooperation trilaterally with the United States.

Specifically, the joint communique released by the three leaders identifies cooperation with an intention to uphold the ‘rules-based international order’, continued efforts to defend and denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, and enhanced collaboration in economic, scientific, and technological innovation.

Tangible outputs from the meeting include agreements to improve trilateral mechanisms facilitating ‘regular and timely communication’ between leadership teams, in addition to increased military-to-military co-operation between the ROK and Japan.

Yet, the significance of the summit lies not in its tangibles but its symbolic embodiment of rapprochement between two long-time adversaries to counter common threats in the region.

How South Korea and Japan will co-operate against North Korea on defence

The existential threat of WMDs is once-again a poignant one, thanks to the global-cinematic success of Oppenheimer. In South Korea, such threats are very real indeed.

On Wednesday 23rd August 2023, millions of South Koreans took part in a nationwide civil defence drill – the first in six years – amidst rising threats from North Korea. In an eerie affair, minute-long air-raid sirens signalled residents to evacuate to the nearest bomb shelter. The U.S. nuclear umbrella is committed to defending the South in the event of an attack.

For Japan, North Korea posing a direct threat is a more recent phenomenon, thanks to the North’s advancements in its ballistic missile programme. In July, North Korea fired a ballistic missile which landed within Japanese maritime waters. Co-operation with South Korea and the United States on ballistic missile defence has become an increasing priority, but not the foremost priority.

It’s the economy…stupid? Economics underpins ROK-Japan rapprochement

The most pressing national security concern of both Japan and the ROK today is China. China’s ability to hold-at-ransom the economies and supply chains of the ROK and Japan is perceived as a major strategic vulnerability, given its increasingly assertive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific.

The joint communique issued from Camp David identifies explicitly ’dangerous, aggressive, and coercive behaviour’ by China in the South China Sea as troublesome. The fact this concern is voiced ahead of concerns regarding North Korea is no coincidence.

China is the largest trading partner to both Japan and the ROK. The two have thus negotiated a careful balancing act historically, as key U.S. military allies, but with strong economic linkages with Chinese markets.

However, a strategic shift has clearly occurred, with both the ROK and Japan now in near-full strategic alignment with U.S. foreign policy toward China marking a transition from alliance protection to alliance projection.

What’s changed?

This year, South Korean President Yoon Seok Yul announced an agreement detailing the ROK would no longer demand that Japanese companies compensate Korean victims of wartime forced labor, with a state-run foundation funded by private companies instead footing the bill.

The enslavement of many Koreans as part of Japan’s forceful occupation of Korea between 1910 and 1945 has long remained wedged in the Korean psyche and had been a key inflection point in a tumultuous bilateral relationship. Under Japanese occupation, over 150,000 Koreans were forced to work in factories and mines, some to enlist as soldiers, or in the case of many Korean women – work in military brothels to service Japanese soldiers.

Victims of Japanese forced labor victims during the colonial period, hold banners reading “Apologize for forced labour and fulfill the compensation” during an anti-Japan protest on Liberation Day in Seoul, South Korea, August 15, 2019. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

Despite strong domestic opposition to the deal, it seems President Yoon Suk Yeol saw the settlement as an acceptable means-to-an-end of hostilities between the two nations, and the beginning of a new chapter of co-operation against an increasingly assertive China. This was undoubtedly mediated by the U.S., representing a seriously impressive piece of diplomacy by the Biden administration, and a symbolic moment demarcating a new age of Japan-ROK relations.

China views the Camp David summit as a further step taken by the U.S. in its attempts to forge a NATO for the Indo-Pacific

China-Russia Joint Sea military exercises in response to AUKUS announcement. From a military port in Zhoushan, East China’s Zhejiang Province on December 20, 2022. Global Times.

China views tri-lateral co-operation as part of U.S. plans to forge a NATO for the Indo-Pacific to contain China. Last month, NATO held its annual summit in Vilneus. With the ROK and Japan both present, as well as Australia and New Zealand. A joint statement released from the summit took aim at China and the PRC.

Meanwhile, talks have begun to open a NATO liaison office in Japan – the first in Asia. The U.S. denies development of a NATO for the Pacific, but it’s easy to sympathize with Chinese accusations that the U.S. is playing cold war bloc politics amidst other new security initiatives announced in the region. AUKUS is a trilateral security agreement between Australia, The United Kingdom, and the United States where the latter will provide the former with nuclear submarines for patrol in the Indo-Pacific. Whilst the QUAD is another U.S. led strategic security initiative to counter Chinese influence, with Australia, Japan, and India partners.

In much of Asia, the shadow of colonialism and hard-fought independence taints the ideal of submission to a Western-led security alliance. This begs the question as to whether such developments represent a NATO for the Indo-Pacific, or NATO in the Indo-Pacific. The prospect of NATO expansion brought war to Ukraine. Having already poked the bear, the U.S. and its allies now risk poking the panda.